Monday, September 10, 2007

The Myth of Peak Energy

The Oil Drum published a long report on "global peak energy." There is lots of insightful research, including the unflinching correlation between population growth and energy use. Ultimately, it reaches the Malthusian conclusion that global energy and with it population will peak between 2025 and 2030.

The notion of peak energy seems to piggy back on the notion of peak oil. But there is a very good, physical reason for peak oil - there is only so much of it, and it can only come out of the ground so fast. Peak energy, however, is a meaningless term. Energy can come from anywhere. If there was going to be a global shortage of energy there would be a short run crisis, but enterprising citizens/companies would step up by building solar/wind/tidal/thermal/etc power plants. As the cost of energy increases, more and more sources of that energy start to look appealing.

The one thing people know how to do is reproduce. In the absence of cataclysm, they will continue to do so.

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