Sunday, September 9, 2007

The Nuclear unLearning Curve

Bloomberg (via Gristmill) writes about the troubled construction of a nuclear plant in Finland.
"
One Areva official points to a nagging issue for reactor builders: inexperienced contractors working for an industry that has been dormant in much of Europe and the U.S. for 20 years.
"
Business types out there will be familiar with the learning curve. Essentially, every time total production is doubled, costs come down some percentage. So if you made 1000 units at $10 average cost, when you made 2000 units, the cost should be down to $8 on a 20% learning curve.

But this comment speaks to a forgetting curve. So few nuclear plants have been built that delays and problems (like lumpy concrete and problematic steel grain sizes) have run up the cost until it is "more than 25 percent over its 3 billion-euro ($4 billion) budget."

Building a new nuclear reactor takes years. If you believe in nuclear, can we build enough reactors (and deal with the waste) to make a difference?

No comments: